Venezuela is at the brink of Civil War
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has been in a deep political crisis over the last three years, the country is going through tragic economic problems and has the worst social problems that South America has ever experienced in the last thirty years.
Today the immigration crisis from Venezuela has spilled over all countries in South America, there are more than 3 millon Venezuelan Refugees that have left their country for a better life and moved into Colombia, Brazil, Paraguay, Peru and Chile. Peru is hosting over 500 thousand Venezuelans and Brazil has over three hundred thousand refugees from Venezuela. President Nicolas Maduro pretends to be the advocate of Venezuela's vulnerable population, however he leads a lavish and luxurious life style while his countrymen are suffering from the massive absence of consumption goods in stores and from a four digits hyperinflation that has taken Venezuela into the abyss of disaster and political turmoil. Mr. Maduro and his close associates are conducting military provocations nearby the border with Colombia and have closed the border with Brazil. A diplomatic crisis with Panama had erupted over a year ago and Mr. Maduro continues to practice a language of confrontation. Caracas is in a diplomatic crisis with 12 countries that have founded the Lima Group, an initiative established by the Republic of Peru in 2017, dedicated to handling the crisis of Venezuela.
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela under Nicolas Maduro is at the brink of Civil War, only in the second - third week of January 2019, there were injured over 400 protesters and killed over 30 pacific protesters in the streets of Caracas. Mr. Maduro believes that the interim president -legitimate president of Venezuela- Mr. Juan Guaidó is violating the national constitution and is furious against the European Union and United States, two key allies of Mr. Guaidó.
Mr. Maduro accuses president Donald Trump for interfering in the internal affairs of Venezuela (which is NOT true), at the same time Mr. Nicolas Maduro (former President of Venezuela), has forgotten the fact that when serving as his country's Minister of Foreign Affairs in June 2012, he traveled directly to Asuncion, Paraguay, to call upon the country's top generals to do everything they could in stopping the soft political coup d'état led by the members of National Congress of Paraguay against the President of Paraguay Fernando Lugo Méndez; this scenario had the direct involvement of Mr. Maduro because Paraguay's top generals, Gen. Benicio Melgarejo and others were receiving a monthly salary from President Hugo Chavez ($3,000/month), only General of Air Forces of Paraguay Gen. Miguel Christ Jacobs was not on Chavez's payroll. Now Senator Fernando Lugo Mendez is defending Nicolas Maduro even though Paraguayan Government has cut completely the diplomatic ties with Venezuela. On this coming Wednesday Mr. Juan Guaidó has called for protests in hope that Venezuelan Army would join the people of Venezuela and abandon Mr. Maduro's club of oligarchs.
Furthermore the United States is not interested to conduct a large scale military operation in Venezuela to overthrow Mr. Maduro. A low intensity military operation is an option, with special forces. On the other hand Russia Federation, Iran and China will support Maduro due to their loans given to Maduro's government and military cooperation. The position of Turkey will possibly change in the near future.
The writer is Peter Tase is an american expert on international relations
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