World Emerged Multi-polar Visibly
Today the world is visibly moving towards a Multipolar World. After World War II, the US under the Marshal Program developed infrastructure in war-torn Western Europe. After the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, global organizations like the World Bank and IMF came into existence providing the US with a leadership role. The UN headquarters was also established at New York. The US as a major contributor, funding the UN had also a considerable amount of influence on its working and dealings. NATO was formed to counter an emerging Communist Threat initially, but later on, its scope widened too. In the Cold war era, the US was on the steering seat and controlling various states through creating a false sense of fear amongst them. But after the disintegration of former USSR, the US and its allies diverted their focus on the Middle-East. Iraq war, Libya war, Afghan War, Yemen War, Kuwait War, etc have witnessed a unipolar world as in most of the cases the US did not bother to involve the UN, it acted blatantly in the violation of all international norms of the civilized world. Most of the actions were self-centered, self-initiated and short-sighted.
The US spent too much on its war crazy defense budget, as a result, its economy started to decline. Even the common taxpayer in the US is asking the Government for accountability of his tax money. Whatsoever, the official statistics show, but a common man does not feel safe and secure, as a result of aggressive policies, anti-American sentiments have grown world-wide gradually. The Americans do not feel safe and secure, at home and abroad equally. Common citizen is worried and still suffering.
Unexpectedly, the US faced a lot of resistance in Syria. In spite of its huge military might, it could not win the War in Syria. The Afghan war may be Americas most costly war ever, as, after the 17 years of full-scale war in Afghanistan, it could not produce any results and most of Afghanistan is still under the Taliban control. Modern weapons, hi-tech and intensive training could not help US forces to win this prolonged war. Iran-sanctions are another big question mark on political face of US.
The US policies of aggression and high-defense spending have cost the US economy very negatively. The Trump Administration has launched a Trade War against China, which has very severe consequences on the global economy. The US funding for UN and its subordinate organizations was reduced to a big extent, furthermore, the US is curtailing its defense expenditures on its ally’s security and facing isolation. France, Germany, UK and Japan, do not feel comfortable with current policies of US. In case of war, US allies may not support or participate.
A Recent report by the National Defense Strategy Commission clearly explains the current status of US. "America's ability to defend its allies, its partners and its own vital interests is increasingly in doubt,” obviously allies may not support the US in case of any war. The report says “Russia and China are challenging the United States, its allies and its partners on a far greater scale than has any adversary since the Cold War's end," further says "If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned "Americans could face a decisive military defeat."
The report identified a set of six trends, it said had fundamentally altered the strategic environment now facing the United States:
• The return of major-power competition from authoritarian powers like Russia and China;
• The rise and expanded military capabilities of aggressive regional challengers like Iran and North Korea;
• Evolving and intensifying threats from jihadist groups;
• Rising "gray-zone" aggression, which includes strong-arm diplomacy and economic coercion, media manipulation and cyber-attacks, paramilitary and proxy forces;
• The proliferation of advanced technology – hypersonic and Artificial Intelligence, for instance – that is eroding U.S. advantages and creating new vulnerabilities;
• And political dysfunction – budgetary instability and reduced defense investment.
But I believe it is much more than this. Its own policies and overconfidence is also a major factor not accounted for. On the other hand, it is the law of nature that no one super power remains a super power forever in the history and we believe the same will happen in the future too. There was a time for the Roman Empire, the Turks ruled half of the world, and the British Empire enjoyed a vast empire. But with the passage of time, all of them completed their tenure and due to one or another reason, have to lose the status of “Super Power”. I believe, the natural timeline of US superiority is over and whatever now is left of US is only decline.
The report also indicates that, the US has plans to go to War with China or Russia and they have also identified the battle fields too. In the case of China, war on Taiwan issue and in the case of Russia, the Baltic region. But, once the war starts, it is beyond some one’s control and may spread to all others parts of the world, which one may not have thought of.
I must appreciate, the report is based on facts, no manipulations or fake.However, I hope, the UN, International Community, and all individuals with conscious, may take all necessary steps to avoid any disaster to the humanity. As every country possess lethal and weapons of mass destruction, in case of any misadventure, may cause very heavy lose to humanity. We all have the responsibility to hand over a better world to our next generation, where our children and grand-children may live in peace, harmony and prosper life comfortably. I believe in dialogue, “diplomacy” is the weapon of civilized world. If all nations follow the UN charter in its true spirit, we may save this world.
Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomate), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
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